Antarctica Is Changing, and So Must We
Part 1 of 3: Antarctica Blog Series
A photo of Port Lockroy taken during Dr. Tiffany Vora’s voyage to Antarctica in November 2023.
In my previous post in this Antarctica blog series, I pointed to Kim Stanley Robinson’s claim that “First you fall in love with Antarctica, and then it breaks your heart.” Let’s take a look at one of these heartbreaking insights, courtesy of polar oceanographer Dr. Mark Brandon.
Here, I ask Mark about the most important thing for policymakers to know about how Antarctica affects the rest of the world.
His answer? That the catastrophic loss of ice in Antarctica (particularly the West Antarctic Ice Sheet) will drastically affect sea-level rise globally. In turn, that rise will impact our cities, our food systems, our supply chains, and ways of life for millions—if not billions—of people in the coming decades.
Another heartbreaking insight is that much of this change is already locked in, thanks to years of inaction on sustainability.
Read on to see why what happens in Antarctica doesn’t stay in Antarctica—and how we can still make choices today that will help build a more resilient future. Portions of this interview have been edited and condensed for clarity.
Sea level rise: Antarctica comes home
A photo of an Antarctic shag, also known as the king cormorant or blue-eyed shag, taken by Tiffany during her 2023 Antarctic Voyage. The British Antarctic Survey discovered that some shag populations have fallen by more than half in recent decades, highlighting the stresses faced by this entire ecosystem.
Tiffany: If you could tell a policymaker anything—given your expertise, what you've seen, and what you think is going to happen here in the polar region—what would you tell them?
Dr. Mark Brandon: Being a physical scientist, you have to be very honest about everything. There are changes that are locked in already. If we were to, for example, stop our emissions now, Antarctica is still going to be changing for another, perhaps, 200 years.
So there's sea level rise that's already locked in.
What we can do is change the rate of change, and the longer-term trajectory, and that's the issue. So it really is, in some ways, a tomorrow problem.
But in terms of sea-level rise, the more immediate thing is we've got a remarkable amount of evidence. Now, when I say evidence, I mean data that show that, because we've made significant changes to the climate in the Arctic—the reduction in sea ice, tundra is changing—that is affecting our weather systems. We don't have that evidence yet in the Antarctic, because the time series are so short, but I think we should expect them.
One of the features of Antarctic sea ice is that it's been remarkably constant over the entire satellite record, which goes back to 1979. So to lose two and a half million square kilometers this year [2023] is a surprise. We would expect that to have impacts—and the impacts on shorter-term weather systems are likely to be more significant than sea-level rise in the short term.
So the take-home message is Antarctica is changing really quite rapidly, and a lot of changes are locked in. There are going to be weather impacts as well.
We can limit future changes. We are going to have to respond to what's already happened anyway. If we were to moderate our emissions, it's not an either/or thing. It's a win if we improve air quality and go to renewables. That's going to be much better for our people in our cities. It will also help the Antarctic as well, because it will reduce the rate of increase in CO₂ and things that are going on in the Antarctic.
Adaptation strategies for the polar region
A photo of Weddell seals taken by Tiffany during her 2023 Antarctic Voyage. They can be found throughout the Antarctic region, where they rest, molt, and give birth on the ice. These beauties have flexible eating habits, which may be a useful strategy for adapting to climate change. But it’s not clear whether the overall Antarctic ecosystem will remain healthy in the face of the climate change.
Tiffany: Do you think there are adaptation strategies that can be deployed in the polar region itself?
Dr. Mark Brandon: The climate system is hugely linked, and we like to think of us affecting Antarctica. The reality is, it's a complicated system. [When it comes to potential geoengineering strategies,] We do not understand these interconnected systems well enough. These aren’t closed systems. We don’t understand them well enough and what we can do.
Other strategies like blocking warm ocean currents that reach the Antarctic ice cap seem impractical beyond comprehension. In a computer model, you can quite easily take the practicalities of getting thousands of ships down here to block warm ocean currents that reach the Antarctic ice cap. [But] It’s impractical.
In my view, efficiency is the most obvious thing to do—reducing emissions and moving to alternative energy sources, which are more viable.
Dr. Tiffany Vora during her 2023 voyage to Antarctica with Homeward Bound. Image credits: Heidi Victoria
What can we do today?
After my conversation with Mark about inevitable sea-level rise and our adaptations to climate change, here are my major takeaways:
We urgently need both mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate resilience, because it is too late to entirely avoid certain damaging impacts. Policymakers, take note!
Although the climate is complex, dynamic, and globally interconnected, our actions today still matter. Our choices are part of the fight to slow the rate of climate change and blunt its long-term effects.
What happens in Antarctica affects us all … from this year’s extreme weather to meters of sea rise in the coming decades.
Remember, more than sea-level rise is on the way. Ice loss will also reduce the ability of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean to act as carbon sinks, delivering even more uncertainty about our future. And since Antarctica seems to be warming at twice the global average, the region could switch to being a driver of climate change, rather than a buffer against it.
The future sketched here is frightening in its scale and complexity. How can we know whether our efforts are actually making a difference?
Stay tuned for the next post in this series, when I share Dr. Mark Brandon’s thoughts about monitoring Antarctica to reveal insights about how the changing planet will impact us all.
As my polar hero Sir Ernest Shackleton wrote, “Optimism is true moral courage.”
About Tiffany
Dr. Tiffany Vora speaks, writes, and advises on how to harness technology to build the best possible future(s). She is an expert in biotech, health, & innovation.
After a 19-day voyage to Antarctica aboard The Island Sky in November 2023, Dr. Tiffany Vora has many remarkable stories to share & a wealth of insights to catalyze a sustainable future.
She also still has some fees (and carbon offsets) to cover. You can support her ongoing journey by donating through this link. Your support will spread positive impact around the world, empower Tiffany to protect time for impact-focused projects, and support travel for pro bono events with students & nonprofits.
For a full list of topics and ways to collaborate, visit Tiffany’s Work Together webpage.
Photos from Tiffany’s Antarctic Voyage
Donate = Impact
After a 19-day voyage to Antarctica aboard The Island Sky in November 2023, Tiffany has many remarkable stories to share & a wealth of insights to catalyze a sustainable future.
You can support her ongoing journey by making a contribution through her donation page. Your support will spread positive impact around the world, empower Tiffany to protect time for impact-focused projects, and support logistical costs for pro bono events with students & nonprofits.